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Sunday, 14 February 2010

A Greek Tragedy & Other Interesting Statistics

I complied some of these statistics from different sources on the Internet
  • Fiscal Deficit of Greece: 12.7% of GDP 
  • Workers in Greece have the second highest level of actual hours worked.  
  • Greece needs to refinance about Euro 64 billion worth of debt - most of it before April. By end of January they raise about Euro 8 billion. 
  • EU wants Greece to cuts it budget by 8.7 percent this year and down to three percent within three years.  
  • The total debt of Greece is Euro 254 billion other estimates place the debt at Euro 300 billion.  
  • Nearly 30 percent of Greece's economy is underground and hence beyond the scope of taxes. 
  • If Greece swallows bitter pill and makes the budget cuts, that means that nominal GDP will decline by (at least) 4-5% over the next 3 years. Since tax revenues will also decline, even with tax increases, it means that the country will have to make even further cuts, over and above the ones contemplated to get to that magic 3% fiscal deficit to GDP - a great recipe for an economic depression. 
  • Add into the equation that borrowing another €100 billion (at a minimum) over the next few years, while in the midst of that recession, will only add to the already huge debt and interest costs. 
  • Unfortunately for Greece it cannot take the easiest way out by devaluing its currency or printing more in order to take up 'quantitative easing' like UK, USA or Japan, because it does not have a national currency. (A great reason why the Euro could fail). 
  • Bank of International Settlements (the central bankers' central bank) says that the largest holders of Greek debt are the French, Swiss and Germans. In June 2009 it was France €86 billion, Switzerland €60bn, and Germany €44 billion. Other estimates place this at of France €73b, Switzerland €59b, and Germany €39b. In terms of GDP, for Germany it is minimal - just over 1%. Of more concern, for France it is nearly 3%, and for Belgium 2.5%.
That is not all. Others are not far behind:
  • By the way, the politically right word to refer to the troubled countries of Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Greece (which were also refereed to as PIIGS) is now Club O'Med. 
  • Barclays Capital says the net external liabilities of Greece are 87pc of GDP, or €208bn (£182bn). Spain is worse at 91pc (€950bn), and Portugal worse yet at 108pc (€177bn); Ireland is 68pc (€123bn), Italy is 23pc, (€347bn). Add East Europe's bubble and foreign debts top €2 trillion. 
  • It has been pointed out that the total exposure of various countries to Club O'Med is $853bn for France (30pc of its GDP), and $707bn for Germany (19pc of GDP).

Hold your breath! the UK takes the cake: It has been pointed out that UK banks have a 250 billion pounds exposure to the Club O'Med countries.

See the following table

 




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