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Tuesday, 22 September 2009

Bear Markets Durations

This interesting analysis (in the chart below - Click on the image for greater clarity) of the recent bear markets was undertaken by Morgan Stanley. I would probably believe that only the 1930s case would be suitable for the present context for the simple reason that most of the other recessions never had to face the risks or even questions about the counter-party risks. This bear market is more about solvency problems rather than liquidity.

What is interesting about the post 2007 world is that probably never before have we had so many people being divided into two diametrically opposite camps - Inflation or Deflation. The Golden Mean seems to be almost non-existent.

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